Saturday, May 7, 2011

Will Singapore become another Dubai?

Someone reading this title may think I am crazy-how can I compare a robust economy with one that was(and still is) quite shaky? But scratch the surface and there are more similarities than differences.
  1. Natural resources:- Both do not have significant natural resources(Dubai does NOT have oil, while Singapore needs to import most of its stuff from ASEAN countries/Australia/China). This makes them sensitive to global inflationary trends. 
  2. Politics:- Though Dubai is an autocratic state(Al Makhthum), Singapore is on the way there given that since independence, a single political party(PAP) has hogged 90%+ seats in Parliament. Though the 2011 elections( results were declared today) were the most contested in history with opposition standing in 82/87 seats, they managed to win just 6 seats(compared to 1 in the earlier 2006 elections). While this is a big step forward for the opposition-them winning a GRC(5 MP constituency) and unseating the foreign minister, the future does not augur well for dissent. To be fair though, the reason they have maintained power all this will is also because of the efficient functioning-with just 15% peak tax(till recently), Singapore public services are one of the most efficient globally. 
  3. Restrictions on citizenship/land ownership: Expats get citizenship with difficulty, and are rarely permitted to buy landed properties. The Govt owns all the land allowing just 99year leases. I agree that this is not unique to Singapore/Dubai, but then these restrictions do not encourage expats to invest in Singapore. 
  4. Heavy dependence on expats: As a perusal of the election manifestos shows, Singaporeans are feeling that expats are displacing them from their rightful place in the $100K/yr+ jobs in banking/finance. This is due to many factors(too long to list here) but then it does hit the educated youth hard when they find they are not getting the top jobs in the finance space. Even in other sectors, construction/healthcare etc, the lower rung jobs are also being taken away by Malaysians/Indians/Chinese etc. And now, citizens are asking whether this is necessary.
  5. Going away from core competencies:-Both Dubai and Singapore leveraged their maritime location well to build industries around shipping like ports, refineries, logistics etc, then inviting companies to set up their regional hubs their(Middle East/North Africa hubs from Dubai; South East Asia hub from Singapore). But now, both cities are focusing more on paper wealth created by the banking/finance/services space, and this has induced more volatility.
  6. Entitlement mentality:-As the ruling PAP pointed out often, Singaporeans are getting used to being coddled and expect the Govt to take care of them. This factor is already creating some unrest in Dubai, and may do so in Singapore too later.
 Let me clarify that I have the deepest admiration and respect for what Singapore and its Govt has achieved-creating a world class economy from a marshy swamp. But the way things are going, the parallels to Dubai seemed too close for comfort.

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